Florida, Georgia, Hawaii and Idaho Redistricting Previews

Florida

State Legislative Lines Drawn By: State Legislature (Senate: 16D-24R, House: 42D-78R)
Congressional Districts: 28
Congressional Lines Drawn By: State Legislature
Subject to Gubernatorial Veto: Yes (Republican)
State Supreme Court: 7-0 Republican
Deadlines: Final maps due by end of 2022 legislative session (currently scheduled for March 12, 2022)

With big state legislative majorities and a Supreme Court stacked with radical ideologues, little stands in the way of a Republican gerrymander in Florida’s congressional and state legislative maps. While Florida voters passed constitutional amendments requiring fair districts a decade ago, during the last redistricting cycle those amendments were ignored by the Florida legislature and only enforced by the state supreme court four years after the maps were actually drawn. Since then, the aforementioned ideologues picked by Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis have taken the majority on the court and could ignore those precedents if the maps are litigated.   

Republicans have enough power in redistricting to ensure that every single state legislative Republican incumbent is put in a district that went for Trump.  They can gerrymander themselves close to supermajorities even though the state was only a light shade of red over the past decade.  Perhaps the only way to stop this outcome would be for Congress to pass redistricting reform that applies to state legislatures or a state ballot initiative that hands line-drawing to an independent commission instead of letting rightwing ideologues in the legislatures and courts game the system.

At the congressional level, this means the state could go from having 12 of its 27 districts having supported Biden to just 9 of 28 doing so, as they will likely make the 7th, 13th and 27th districts more Republican. 

But if you live in Florida please don’t despair. If legislative or other public hearings are called, Floridians could still build a record showing what fair, proportional maps would look like, as a  potential future fair court could use the evidence to implement fair lines.

Georgia

State Legislative Lines Drawn By: State Legislature (Senate: 22D-34R, House: 76D-103R)
Congressional Districts: 14
Congressional Lines Drawn By: State Legislature
Subject to Gubernatorial Veto: Yes (Republican)
State Supreme Court: 7-0 Republican
Deadlines: Filing Deadline March 11, 2022

The best way to address the voter restrictions passed by the Georgia legislature earlier this year is preventing corrupt right wing special interests from maintaining control of the Georgia legislature.  And redistricting reform that applies to the Georgia state legislature would at the very least force the legislature to abandon some of its more radical stances.  

Georgia was the most tightly contested state at the presidential level in 2020, so drawing maps that have about half of the seats favoring either party would be the fairest outcome.  Maps that accurately represent the voters of Georgia could help hold the majority accountable to appeal to median voters instead of passing their radical right agenda.

And absent such reform, those same lawmakers will get to draw their own districts again, with little to check them under state law. Today, only the VRA stands in the way of the worst gerrymanders.

Hawaii

State Legislative Lines Drawn By: Political Commission (4D-4R-1I)
Congressional Districts: 2
Congressional Lines Drawn By: Same Commission
State Supreme Court: 4-1 Democratic
Deadlines: 150 Days of Committee being appointed

With an overwhelmingly Democratic legislature and congressional lines that should remain similar, redistricting should not have a significant impact on partisan politics in Hawaii.

Idaho

State Legislative Lines Drawn By: Political Commission (3D-3R)
Congressional Districts: 2
Congressional Lines Drawn By: Same Commission
State Supreme Court: 4-0-1 Republican
Deadlines: 90 Days of Committee Being Appointed

Idaho has a solidly Republican state legislature and it’s unlikely that redistricting will have much impact on the partisan makeup.  But the congressional map may be worth monitoring.

Ada County (home to Boise) is becoming the biggest source of Democratic votes in the state, taking a trajectory similar to other Mountain West urban areas like Salt Lake and Maricopa Counties that used to be Republican bastions.  However, it’s split between congressional districts in order to keep the Idaho Panhandle and Eastern Idaho in separate seats.  With the state’s bipartisan redistricting commission historically inclined toward drawing fair maps, Idahoans who want to keep Boise together may ask them to draw one district centered in Ada and Canyon Counties and another taking in the rest of the state.