Everything you need to know about redistricting from now to new districts

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa and Kansas Redistricting Previews

Photo credit: Drew Dau

Illinois

State Legislative Lines Drawn By: State Legislature (Senate: 41D-18R, House: 72D-45R)
Or Backup Commission (Tiebreaker TBD)
Congressional Lines Drawn By: State Legislature
Congressional Districts: 17
Subject to Gubernatorial Veto: Yes (Democratic)
State Supreme Court: 4-3 Democratic
Deadlines: State legislative maps due by June 30, 2021 (Legislature) or October 5, 2021 (Backup Commission), filing deadline November 29, 2021

The Census delays had a big impact in Illinois, where delivery of data in August instead of April had some major consequences. Like their Republican colleagues in Oklahoma, Illinois Democrats drew a state legislative map using Census estimates to avoid losing map-drawing power due to a state constitutional deadline.

After the proposed maps were released some claimed that the odd lines in the city of Chicago were proof of a partisan gerrymander. But that couldn’t be further from the truth. Those oddly shaped districts take in areas that all overwhelmingly voted Democratic; the odd shapes have no partisan impact. Rather, they’re drawn that way to avoid unconstitutionally packing Black and Latino voters into too few districts.

Which brings me to a critical point that applies across all states. Odd shape is not de facto proof of a gerrymander. Legislative maps aren’t a polygon-drawing contest, they’re how we ensure America remains a representative democracy. The critical measure of whether a map is a gerrymander is whether the districts are proportional to the state’s political leaning. Sometimes they can have odd shapes to keep communities of interest together or ensure the constitutional mandate of nonwhite voters being fairly represented. So wait for the electoral data to come in before determining whether an odd-looking district is part of a gerrymander.

As for the congressional lines, the legislature does not have a June 30 deadline for that so it can draw a map using actual Census data. It is possible for them to draw a map that contains 14 seats that voted for Biden and only 3 that went for Trump, compared to 12 Biden and 6 Trump seats today.

Indiana

State Legislative Lines Drawn By: State Legislature (Senate: 11D-39R, House: 29D-71R)
Congressional Districts: 9
Congressional Lines Drawn By: State Legislature
Subject to Gubernatorial Veto: Yes (Republican)
State Supreme Court: 5-0 Republican
Deadlines: Maps due by end of legislative session (now scheduled to end November 15, 2021)

Indiana Democrats haven’t won any statewide races since 2012 and Republicans have supermajorities in both legislative chambers. But Biden still won 42% of the two party vote in the state, so it’s not unreasonable to ask for a median district that gave him 42% of the vote and a decently proportional number of districts that he actually carried so Democrats have a chance at flipping the chamber if they can win a majority of the vote in the state. Even breaking the supermajority would be meaningful, as a quorum requires ⅔ of members to be present. Unfortunately, Democrats have little leverage to ask for it without redistricting reform or the establishment of an independent redistricting committee.

As for the congressional map, it’d be relatively easy to draw three seats that went for Biden but the state legislature seems like it’ll only draw one, down from two today. With the minority having so little leverage, Hoosier State residents looking for fair maps have two main options 1) providing the factual basis for fair maps at a public hearing and 2) agitating for redistricting reform.

Iowa

State Legislative Lines Drawn By: State Supreme Court (6-1 Republican)
Congressional Districts: 4
Congressional Lines Drawn By: State Legislature (Senate: 22D-28R, House: 41D-59R)
Subject to Gubernatorial Veto: Congressional only (Republican)
Deadlines: State legislative districts due December 31, 2021, filing deadline March 18, 2022

In Iowa, legislators do not take the first crack at drawing districts. Rather, the state has a nonpartisan bureau draw draft lines within 45 days of the state receiving Census data and the state legislature decides on an up-or-down vote whether to pass these lines. If it rejects them the bureau has two more tries to draw maps. If the legislature rejects all three then it can draw lines itself. The bureau provided a helpful explanation of the process 10 years ago.

The state constitution requires that the legislative districts are passed by the legislature by September 1, otherwise drawing goes to the Supreme Court. Even though Census data will be available in legacy formats in August, the bureau likely would not deliver a plan to the legislature for their approval by the state constitutional deadline. And even then, the legislature would not have time to draw their own lines. So the State Supreme Court, which is Republican controlled but by its nature more likely to be deferential to the bureau, will be tasked with drawing state legislative lines.

There’s no state constitutional deadline for congressional districts, so the legislature can eventually take the pen on drawing them. The bureau puts an emphasis on getting as close to population equality as possible without splitting county lines, and based on the latest estimates it could look like this. The map seems to reflect the state well – the 4th is heavily Republican, the 1st leans Republican and the 2nd and 3rd are tossups.

Of course, with their numbers, the majority could reject fair maps and draw one of their own that has four seats that voted for Trump. But this would be a departure from Iowa’s political norms.

Kansas

State Legislative Lines Drawn By: State Legislature (Senate: 11D-29R, House: 39D-86R)
Congressional Districts: 4
Congressional Lines Drawn By: State Legislature
Subject to Gubernatorial Veto: Yes (Democratic)
State Supreme Court: 5-2 Democratic
Deadlines: State legislative lines due by end of 2022 session (likely April 10), congressional filing deadline June 1, 2022

First the good news; state legislative maps have to be approved by the Kansas Supreme Court before becoming law. The court’s Democratic majority likely would not approve a Republican gerrymander, so there are limits to what the majority can do. If the maps are fair, the minority should have a path to breaking the supermajority (they are just three seats away in the House) in 2022.

As for the congressional map, it’s easy to draw a fair one. By making minimal changes to the existing lines, Kansas could have three districts that went for Trump in 2020 and three that went for Governor Kelly when she won in 2018. That’s pretty representative of the state.

Of course, Kansas’s majority has shown little interest in passing fair maps; instead a state representative who wants to run for the Democratic-held 3rd District is chairing the House’s redistricting committee. Governor Kelly can veto partisan gerrymanders but there are enough Republicans in the legislature to override her, and unlike the state legislative maps, congressional maps do not have to be approved by the State Supreme Court before becoming law (though Democrats could still pursue litigation after a map passes, arguing that a partisan gerrymander violates state law). Thankfully in Kansas there are a number of moderate Republicans in the legislature who might defect on such a vote (Republicans can only afford to lose three votes in either chamber).