Everything you need to know about redistricting from now to new districts

Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine and Maryland Redistricting Previews

Photo Credit: Geri Chapple

Kentucky

State Legislative Lines Drawn By: State Legislature (Senate: 8D-30R, House: 25D-75R)
Congressional Districts: 6
Congressional Lines Drawn By: State Legislature
Subject to Gubernatorial Veto: Yes (Democratic)
State Supreme Court: Nonpartisan but four justices have Republican ties while three have Democratic ties
Deadlines: Filing Deadline January 7, 2022

The state legislative majority can override gubernatorial vetoes with just 50% of the vote so you may think that they can pass gerrymanders with ample room to spare. But state laws could rein in their ability to do so.

For the state legislative map, the state constitution requires line-drawers to keep counties together to the extent possible. This restriction limits the ability to gerrymander. Bluegrass State Democrats had, until recently, been able to win districts that their party’s presidential candidates lost by double digits, so if there’s a reversion to that type of norm, a fair map could help them regain power.

And Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear’s vetoes can be overridden, but he does have some leverage.  Kentucky’s early filing deadline means the legislature would have to be called into special session to pass a map in time for the 2022 elections. Beshear may try to cut a deal around map fairness in order to bring the legislature back into session.

Cutting such a deal would be critical for the congressional map because the legislature could try to lock in a 6-0 Republican congressional delegation (Rep. John Yarmuth is currently the only Democrat in the state’s congressional delegation) by slicing up Louisville’s solidly Democratic Jefferson County, which has more than enough people to host a congressional district entirely within its borders.  In fact, every Kentucky congressional map since the 1880s has had a district based entirely in Jefferson County.  

Louisiana

State Legislative Lines Drawn By: State Legislature (Senate 11D-27R, House 35D-66R-2I)
Congressional Districts: 6
Congressional Lines Drawn By: State Legislature
Subject to Gubernatorial Veto: Yes (Democratic)
State Supreme Court: 5-1-1 Republican
Deadlines: State legislative lines must be drawn by December 31, 2021

Democrats have the very narrow ability to block overrides of Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards’ vetoes in the Louisiana House; they need to keep all their members and at least one of the two independents on board to prevent such. However, to date veto overrides have been rare, just two have occurred in the history of the State of Louisiana.

So what happens if there’s a deadlock? We know that the state’s Republican-dominated Supreme Court will draw the state legislative maps if the legislature can’t pass one by the end of the year. They will have relatively wide latitude to do so, but advocates can always sue under federal law if they believe the plans unconstitutionally pack voters of color.

But there’s no state constitutional provision on what happens if there’s a deadlock on a state congressional map. And owing to VRA implications, it seems likely that such a map would end up in federal court, where it’s possible to draw one seat with a majority of Black and Latino voters located entirely in Greater New Orleans and one majority Black district in the center of the state. This version of the maps would likely increase the number of Democrats in the state’s congressional delegation from 1 to 2.

If there is a deadlock that throws maps to the courts, it increases the likelihood that maps will be fair. When a legislature duly passes a map the burden is on the plaintiffs to show why it was illegal. When a legislature doesn’t pass a map, a court has broader leeway to draw lines in a fair manner. So in Louisiana, blocking the legislature from overriding a gubernatorial veto of a gerrymandered map is critical for fair maps.

Maine

State Legislative Lines Drawn By: State Supreme Court (5-1 Democratic)
Congressional Districts: 2
Congressional Lines Drawn By: State Supreme Court
Deadlines: Census delays have scrambled deadlines but Maine Supreme Court likely to draw lines regardless

The Maine Supreme Court was always likely going to draw Maine’s congressional and legislative lines, as they require a ⅔ vote of the legislature to get passed and Democrats have comfortable majorities in both chambers but not that comfortable. 

And Census delays made it impossible for the legislature to draw lines by the state constitutional deadline. They’ll also make it hard for the state supreme court to hit their own deadline but it’s pretty easy to give yourself an extension when you’re the final word on state law.  Notably, the Court is required to hold public hearings before enacting such maps.

Maryland

State Legislative Lines Drawn By: State Legislature
Congressional Districts: 8
Congressional Lines Drawn By: State Legislature
Subject to Gubernatorial Veto: Congressional lines only (Republican)
State Supreme Court: 4-3 Republican
Deadlines: For state legislative lines, legislature must pass a joint resolution within 45 days of the start of the 2022 session (likely February 27, 2022) or governor gets to draw map, for congressional lines filing deadline is February 22, 2022

In Maryland, you only need a ⅗ vote to override a gubernatorial veto. So even with a Republican Governor, Democrats have plenty of wiggle room to override a veto. This means the majority will likely be able to draw state legislative and congressional maps.

The real intrigue is over the congressional map, where all eight seats could be feasibly drawn as seats that went for Biden.  However, federal redistricting reform could potentially impact such an outcome, proof that the proposed law would benefit people across the political spectrum who simply want to have fair districts.