Missouri, Montana, Nebraska and Nevada Redistricting Previews

Missouri

State Legislative Lines Drawn By: Politician Commission (10D-10R)
Congressional Districts: 8
Congressional Lines Drawn By: Legislature (Senate: 10D-24R, House: 48D-114R)
Subject to Gubernatorial Veto: Congressional Yes (Republican)
State Supreme Court: 4-3 Republican
Deadlines: State legislative lines due January 9, 2022, congressional filing deadline March 29, 2022

In 2018 Missouri voters took the task of drawing legislative maps out of politicians’ hands through a ballot initiative. But state legislatures have a knack for trying to circumvent ballot initiatives, so in 2020 the legislature got a competing initiative that gutted the commission on the ballot and it was narrowly approved. Now lines will be drawn by a politician-appointed commission. Maps need 70% of the commission to support them to be enacted, or else line-drawing will go to a panel of judges appointed by the State Supreme Court, which has a narrow Republican majority.

The commission will have at least three public hearings so interested Missourians can appear before them and demand districts that reflect the state politically. The 70% threshold should prevent an outright gerrymander, but the panel appointed by the state supreme court if the commission deadlocks will likely be Republican leaning.

Montana

State Legislative Lines Drawn By: Politician Commission (2D-2R-1I)
Congressional Districts: 2
Congressional Lines Drawn By: Same Commission
State Supreme Court: Nominally nonpartisan but 5-2 Democratic
Deadlines: Congressional plan due within 90 days of Census data being available (November-December 2021), State Legislature gets to recommend changes to map in next legislative session (2023) and lines would be effective for 2024 election.

Montana’s politician commission seems to have an impartial tiebreaker, which is good news for a conservative but independent-minded state where legislative results don’t always match presidential toplines, especially in midterms.

A state law quirk means new legislative lines would not be effective until 2024. But a new map is still possible in 2022 if the state is compelled through litigation. Based on Census estimates, the most populous State House district is almost 70% bigger than the least populous. There have been federal court cases in the past that forced states to hold elections under new lines based on smaller post-Census discrepancies.*

Nebraska

State Legislative Lines Drawn By: State Legislature (One Chamber: 17D-32R)
Congressional Districts: 3
Congressional Districts Drawn By: State Legislature
Subject to Gubernatorial Veto: Yes (Republican)
State Supreme Court: 6-1 Republican
Deadlines: Filing Deadline February 15, 2022

Nebraska is unique in that it only has one state legislative chamber to draw district lines for. And while Democrats are in the minority in the nominally nonpartisan chamber, the state has a strong filibuster which they can use to prevent any gerrymanders from passing.

The filibuster and nonpartisan tradition are factors that can help moderate rightwing control of government. As for the congressional map, the urgency of drawing fair districts is heightened by the state splitting its electoral votes by district. Today the Omaha-based 2nd is a swing district that went Republican in the Electoral College in 2012 and 2016 but Democratic in 2008 and 2020. So the map that the Legislature eventually lands on will have enormous consequences.

Nevada

State Legislative Lines Drawn By: State Legislature (Senate: 12D-9R, House: 26D-16R)
Congressional Districts: 4
Congressional Districts Drawn By: State Legislature
Subject to Gubernatorial Veto: Yes (Democratic)
State Supreme Court: Nominally nonpartisan, 4 judges with GOP ties, 3 with Democratic ties
Deadlines: State legislative lines due by end of October 2021 special session, congressional filing deadline March 18, 2022

State legislative redistricting looms large in Nevada, as Democrats hold a slim majority in the Senate, and on average, the districts that they represent need to gain slightly more population than Republican districts. Accordingly, the final map will have a big impact on whether they can stay in power.

As for the congressional map, roughly ¾ of the state’s population will reside in Las Vegas’s Clark County. That means there will be a Republican-leaning seat taking up most of the state outside it, while the three others will divide up the Democratic-leaning county’s population. Today it’s divided such that there’s a plurality Latino electorate, heavily Democratic seat centered on the City of Las Vegas and two swingy ones based in the suburbs, including one that went for Biden by 0.2%. Accordingly, much of the debate will likely center on whether that setup is maintained.

*Cosner v. Dalton, 522 F. Supp. 350 (E.D. Va. 1981), required Virginia to hold state legislative elections in 1982 instead of 1983 because the existing plan had a 1.2-1 ratio of biggest to smallest district