Arizona 2020

Goal

Flip a chamber

Chamber Makeup

State Senate

13 Democrats

17 Republicans

State House

29 Democrats

31 Republicans

Opportunity Assessment

Arizona is a burgeoning purple state—but it won’t get there on its own. The path to flipping one or both chambers of the legislature is narrow, but if everything breaks right, there’s a significant opportunity to disrupt an extreme, special interest-dominated majority.

The Stakes

In Arizona, the current governing majority has led a coordinated, multi-year effort to undermine fundamental democratic processes and Arizonans’ ability to get a good education and quality healthcare. 

  • Doubled down on efforts to restrict voting, working to change how early voting has worked for decades, limit ballot initiatives, restrict voter IDs, and criminalize some non-partisan voter registration.

  • Proposed legislation to inject partisanship back into the redistricting process.

  • Resurrected junk healthcare plans that do not protect pre-existing conditions.

  • Zealously worked to roll back a voter-approved ballot measure guaranteeing paid sick leave, to the point that courts had to step in.

2020 Political Landscape

  • In 2020, the entire House and Senate are up for election and just two seats in the Senate and one seat in the House will break the current majority.

  • If Democrats win two House seats they will control the chamber outright for the first time in five decades.

  • In 2018:

    • Fewer than 1,300 votes decided control of both state chambers.

    • Future Now Fund endorsed all four candidates who flipped Republican-held House seats.

    • Kyrsten Sinema won a majority of legislative districts (in Arizona the House and Senate are elected from contiguous districts), providing a clear path to the majority in both chambers.

    • In 2018, Republicans were helped by Gov. Doug Ducey’s blowout re-election victory, which they won’t be able to replicate with contested presidential and Senate races atop the ticket in 2020.