Montana 2020

Goal

Flip House

Chamber Makeup

State Senate

20 Democrats

30 Republicans

State House

42 Democrats

58 Republicans

The Opportunity

Montana politics have a decidedly independent streak. The legislature has been controlled by Republicans for nearly three decades and Donald Trump is popular, but there’s a Democratic governor and U.S. senator.  The political landscape creates a narrow but possible path to flipping the House in 2020, expanding the map even deeper into the once impossible mountain west.

The Stakes

Instead of working to improve lives, Republican leadership has fought for pro-corporate interests. The current majority has:

  • Pushed a sweetheart deal with a major energy company that would undermine the state’s independent regulator—and pass the cost onto Montanans’ electricity bills.

  • Blocked efforts to expand treatment options for people facing opioid addiction.

  • Shut down proposals to expand rural broadband.

  • Consistently obstructed an overwhelmingly popular proposal in Montana: universal preschool.

2020 Political Landscape

  • In 2020, the entire House is up for election.  Democrats need to win eight of the 58 Republican-held seats in the House to break the majority. (Only half the Senate is up).

  • Montana is seeing an influx of young professionals from out of state congregating in its metropolitan areas—where people are voting more Democratic in statewide elections but are often still represented by Republicans.

  • In 2018, Jon Tester won a majority of State House districts, all of which are located in areas that could be part of an enduring Democratic coalition (i.e. metro areas or locations with significant Native populations).